If you are looking for companies that will provide an income
during retirement AND consistently give you raises then look no further than
the S&P 500 dividend aristocrat list. The dividend aristocrat list
represents an elite listing of companies that have consistently raised
dividends for at least 25 years. Companies on the dividend aristocrat list have
given an annualized return of 10.6% vs. 8.2% for the S&P 500 over the
last 10 years.
However, from a business owner standpoint I offer the
following criteria to help you focus on companies with staying power and a
better chance to continue those dividend increases over the long-term.
1 1.) Sell a needed or highly desirable product/services--Companies
that sell needed products/services or provide ease of access to highly wanted
products/services will ensure the revenue and free cash flow growth needed to
maintain dividend growth.
2 2.) Dividend sustainability—Look for businesses that
consistently pay out a relatively low portion of yearly free cash flow in
dividends for at least five years and preferably at a rate less than 50%.
Measuring dividend payouts against actual cash flow generation represents the
most accurate method of gauging dividend sustainability. You want companies to
retain some of that cash for other things such as reinvestment back into the
business, difficult times, and other forms of capital return such as share
buybacks.
3 3.) Decent dividend yield—Focus on companies that
provide an annual dividend yield of 1.71%
or greater, which is more than most online five year CDs according to
Bankrate.com. What’s the point of assuming the risk of buying stocks for income
if you can get an income stream risk free? Investors need extra yield to
compensate for the added risk.
Snacks and beverages
PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) sells
things like snacks, hot cereal, oatmeal, bottled water, juices and carbonated
soda. Some of these types of products don’t exactly represent needed products
and actually fall under the wanted category. However, the company’s ubiquity and
global availability of products make it really easy to pick up one of its
products like soda and/or snacks on the go. PepsiCo holds
the No. 6 spot in the world in terms of beverage market share according to
Bloomberg Industry Leaderboard. This company represents one of the global
oligarchs in providing beverages and edibles.
PepsiCo’s dividend sustainability
lies in the OK range with its dividend to free cash flow ratio hovering between
50% and 59% over the past five years (see table below). However, its product
diversity and market dominance counterbalance this slight negative.
PepsiCo Dividend to Free Cash Flow Ratio
|
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2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
58.5%
|
57.3%
|
56.3%
|
57.3%
|
49.8%
|
Source: Morningstar
and author’s calculations
Currently, PepsiCo pays its
shareholders $2.62 per share per year and provides a nice yield of 2.9% which
just represents a starting point. PepsiCo’s market dominance and ubiquity will
most likely ensure PepsiCo’s continued revenue and free cash flow growth and
subsequent dividend growth.
Parts and supplies
Genuine Parts Service (NYSE: GPC)
sells
car parts, industrial parts, and office supplies which serve an essential
function in society. People need to drive or ride a bus and both things need
parts. Also, factories and mines need parts and Genuine Parts Service provides for
that as well through its industrial division. In addition, people can’t
function without office equipment.
Genuine Parts Service maintained
a pretty sustainable dividend rate over the past five year, keeping its
dividend to free cash flow payout ratio below 45% with the exception of 2011.
Genuine Parts Service Dividend to Free Cash Flow Ratio
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2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
36.1%
|
43.5%
|
53.0%
|
37.0%
|
35.0%
|
Source: Morningstar and author’s
calculation
Genuine Parts Service currently
pays its shareholders $2.30 per share per year and yields 2.8%. People are
keeping their cars longer which mean that the need for car parts will be
sustained.
Spices and condiments
McCormick (NYSE: MKC) sells
things like condiments, spices, gravy mixes, and other things mixed in or on
top of foods. McCormick’s products definitely fall under the needed category.
People need its products to add flavoring and texture. The company isn’t
without competitors, but it is a market leader.
McCormick has paid out a
reasonable amount of its free cash flow in dividends with the exception of 2011
(see table below).
McCormick Dividend to Free Cash Flow
|
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2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
37.5%
|
46.3%
|
60.9%
|
47.8%
|
49.3%
|
Source: Morningstar and author’s
calculations
Currently, McCormick pays its
shareholders $1.48 per share per year and yields 2.2% annually. McCormick isn’t
a high flying growth company but it isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.
The takeaway
The fact that these companies
sell highly desirable and needed products will ensure enough revenue and free
cash flow growth to serve as a solid basis for future dividend growth.
Investors will also reap gains in the form of capital gains as the market
adjusts the stock price to bring dividend yields to normalcy. They represent publicly
traded businesses to own for the decades.
Stockdissector is NOT an investment adviser. He owns shares in PepsiCo and will not execute trades in company shares for a period of three market days.
Stockdissector is NOT an investment adviser. He owns shares in PepsiCo and will not execute trades in company shares for a period of three market days.
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